Projected Future Demand for Adult Social Care in West Sussex

Projecting future demand for adult social care is not an exact science but different data and methodologies for analysing data can be used to build up scenarios and possibilities.

The table below illustrates the projected change in demand from older people by level of dependency as estimated by West Sussex County Council Public Health:

• Independent: Supervision or help is not essential.
• Low Dependency: People need some help but less than daily.
• Medium dependency: People need help at regular times each day.
• High dependency: People need 24 hour care.

It is anticipated that it is primarily people with medium intensity dependence that would require care and support at home, with some smaller numbers of people with low dependency. Demand for adult social care services for those with medium dependency is projected to increase by 500 across West Sussex between 2025 - 2035.

The table below shows predictions on the number of low and medium dependency people combined in different areas of West Sussex between 2022 and 2035.

Each area of West Sussex is projected to have increased low and medium dependency with Arun, Horsham, and Chichester having the highest of these levels of dependency projected to 2035.

Projected Demand for Care and Support At Home by 2035

Projections on demand are not easy to calculate as they are dependent on so many changeable factors. However, WSCC have estimated the amount of care and support at home that may be needed for the future based on the following methodology:

1. Estimated projected increase of low and medium combined dependency in the county to 2035.
2. Current numbers of WSCC funded clients and the current proportion of WSCC funded clients against estimated low and medium dependency numbers to 2035.
3. Care and support at home self-funder numbers projected to 2035.
4. Anticipation of a reduction in standard residential care bed based WSCC clients in 2035.

The Local Government Association provides benchmarking information. This source quotes CQC information which shows at year end June 2024, 2,802 people per 100,000 aged over 65 in West Sussex were supported through residential care. This was the 4th highest in the region at that time, where a mean regional average was 2,338 per 100,000. Therefore WSCC is striving to support more people in other types of care, including extra care and care and support at home. For demonstration purposes the modelling for demand for care and support at home is based on a projected 10% reduction in residential care directed to care and support at home by 2035 although WSCC will seek to support as many people at home as possible and hence would look to exceed this figure.

This methodology has been used to calculate potential numbers of customers by 2035 as shown in the table below which also shows the estimated numbers from 2024 as a baseline.

• This shows an estimated 24% increase (1,040 people) in total care and support at home customers in West Sussex by 2035.
• The districts with the largest projected increases in numbers of customers are Crawley, Chichester, Worthing and Arun, although as a percentage increase on current numbers the biggest growth in care and support at home is projected to be in Crawley and Horsham.

It is important to note that demand is also potentially likely to increase for short stay services, particularly supporting people being discharged from hospital. Demand projections in this area have not been included in this document, but it will be important to develop the market to provide sufficient services for people being discharged from hospital in addition to supporting long stay care and support at home.