Projecting future demand for adult social care is not an exact science but different data and analyses can be used to build up scenarios and possibilities.
The following table illustrates the projected change in demand from older people by level of dependency, based on estimates from the Council’s Public Health Team:
- Independent: Supervision or help is not essential.
- Low Dependency: People need some help but less than daily.
- Medium dependency: People need help at regular times each day.
- High dependency: People need 24-hour care.
It is anticipated that people with low and medium dependency would aim to be supported in the community and in their own home where possible. As we start to look at high levels of dependency this is where residential provision and nursing care provision may be required.
| Dependency | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 |
| Independent |
125,300 |
136,300 (+8.8%) |
153,000 (+22.1%) |
166,100 (+32.6%) |
| Low |
54,700 |
55,500 (1.4%) |
62,900 (+14.9%) |
71,400 (+30.4%) |
| Medium |
9,800 |
9,600 (-2.2%) |
9,700 (-0.9%) |
10,100 (+3.4%) |
| High |
16,000 |
16,500 (+3.5%) |
17,800 (+11.6%) |
19,500 (+22.4%) |
Residential and nursing care is projected to be primarily high dependency. Those with high dependency are projected to increase by 22.4% between 2022 and 2035. Each area of West Sussex is projected to have increased medium and high dependency with Arun, Horsham, and Chichester having the highest of these levels of dependency.
| Area | 2022 Medium & High Dependency Total | 2035 Medium & High Dependency Total | Change |
| Adur |
1,900 |
2,100 |
200 |
| Arun |
6,000 |
7,000 |
1,000 |
| Chichester |
4,300 |
5,000 |
700 |
| Crawley |
1,900 |
2,100 |
200 |
| Horsham |
4,200 |
5,200 |
1,000 |
| Mid Sussex |
4,000 |
4,700 |
700 |
| Worthing |
3,200 |
3,700 |
500 |
| Total |
25,500 |
29,800 |
4,300 |
However, another key message from this Public Health dependency estimate data suggests that more people overall will have less/limited dependency on public services as people stay well for longer.
This is reflected in long-term Council funded customer projections, where a decrease in the number of older people requiring any kind of public funded care over time is expected, as shown below.
This information is important in predicting numbers of adult social care customers in the future. The following graph shows estimations of numbers of WSCC publicly funded customers by 2043.
Therefore, whilst the need for the older population over 65 and with high level of needs is expected to grow, and in some areas quite significantly within the next 10 years, the proportion of people which the Council may fund in these services is expected to decrease slightly. This is reflected in the need and demand area profiles below.
The Council wants to ensure that people funding their own care have access to the information and advice to inform decisions about the care they fund in order to maximise people’s independence for as long as possible and to ensure that people do not have to pay for high cost for of care for as long as possible. Having cost effective solutions such as Extra Care housing are important to support this aim.