Future required supply of older people’s bed based care

Approximately 10% of all available residential and nursing beds in West Sussex are currently vacant. The Council has previously sought to project numbers of people who will access residential and nursing care services in the future, using a mixture of Office of National Statistics data and information on numbers of placements purchased. Actual demand for services, 6 years after projections were made, show that demand has increased by approximately 30% compared to those initial projections.

The Council understands that there are a significant number of factors impacting demand as demonstrated in this section and hence it is not possible to fully project exactly what numbers of people will need this type of care in the future. However, the Council is planning to manage demand for older people bed-based care by increasing the range of choice and effectiveness of home-based services, such as care and support at home and Extra Care Housing.

The table below shows an analysis of high dependency estimates for each district/ borough in the County; what the total projected OP bed-based customer numbers could be in 2035 including Council supported customers and self-funders, and different scenarios if no Extra Care is developed, if the planned ECH units are developed and the mid-point of these scenarios.

Note:

• Total additional high dependency is the additional number of people (high dependency only) who may need a care home bed by 2035, should the percentages/proportions that we currently see remain the same.
• Total projected by 2035 is the number of people from the above column, added to the current number of bed-based customers in each area (inclusive of ASC, funders and the NHS and other councils).
• Do Nothing is the number of beds potentially required by 2035 in each area should absolutely nothing change with the number of beds at present but including the additional high dependency people projected – there would be an under supply in all areas of varying degrees.
• Planned ECH units is the number of projected Extra Care units that the Council is aiming to develop by 2035 in each area.
• With ECH Over/Under Supply is the range of over/under supply of beds in each area by 2035 should the ECH targets be met (all areas would see an oversupply of varying degrees, except for Horsham which could still see a small under-supply).
• Mid-point is the midpoint of the projected over/under supply.
• The above does not factor in any expanse of care at home services.

A mid-point estimate of projected demand for older people bed-based care using the above methodology suggests an oversupply of beds across the County by an estimated 650 beds leading to the need for (i) a reduction of approximately 7.5% in the overall bed-base and no new net growth of standard residential care especially in Arun, Chichester, and Adur (ii) a need for a change in the mix of beds available by 2035 across different boroughs and districts to focus on more specialist, complex bed-based care including dementia care, behaviours that challenge services, ,and specialist needs and conditions (iii) a projected small under supply of older people bed-based care in Horsham. This is all highly dependent on a number of factors including Extra Care Housing developments as planned.

There is a need to treat each geographical area individually and, using the available data, plan the approaches required. It is also important to consider the pattern of movement of customers from their home address to bed-based care. We know there is significant movement between areas and action in one area may affect the options for customers in another area. The profiles at the end of this document offer a suggested direction of travel for bed-based supply in each area.