Table 2 below illustrates the projected change in demand from older people aged over 65 by level of dependency. A description of different levels of dependency is summarised below:
Independent: Supervision or help for any activity is not essential
Low Dependency: Where people need some help but less than daily
Medium dependency: Where people need help at regular times each day
High dependency: Where people need 24-hour care.
Extra care housing (ECH) may offer a suitable service to people at all levels of dependency, which are all projected to increase by 2035. However, the increase in medium and high dependency for older people offer areas of focus for ECH which can provide an appropriate service to maximise and maintain a person’s independence to delay or prevent the need for residential based care.
| Dependency | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 |
| Independent | 125,300 | 136,300 (+8.8%) |
153,000 (+22.1%) |
166,100 (+32.6%) |
| Low dependency | 54,700 | 55,500 (+1.4%) |
62,900 (+14.9%) |
71,400 (+30.4%) |
| Medium dependency | 9,800 | 9,600 (-2.2%) |
9,700 (-0.9%) |
10,100 (+3.4%) |
| High dependency | 16,000 | 16,500 (+3.5%) |
17,800 (+11.6%) |
19,500 (+22.4%) |
Table 2 - Older people demand projections by dependency type
Demand for adult social care services for those with medium and high levels of dependency is projected to increase by 4,300 across West Sussex by 2035. Each area of West Sussex is projected to have increased demand with Arun, Horsham and Chichester having the highest levels of demand. This is illustrated in Table 3 below.
| Area | 2022: Medium & High Dependency Total | 2035: Medium & High Dependency Total | Change |
| Adur | 1,900 | 2,100 | 200 |
| Arun | 6,000 | 7,000 | 1,000 |
| Chichester | 4,300 | 5,000 | 700 |
| Crawley | 1,900 | 2,100 | 200 |
| Horsham | 4,200 | 5,200 | 1,000 |
| Mid Sussex | 4,000 | 4,700 | 700 |
| Worthing | 3,200 | 3,700 | 500 |
| Total | 25,500 | 29,800 | 4,300 |
Table 3 - Medium and high dependency projections by district & borough area